In this study cancer screening likelihood method was used to
analyze the CT scan group in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) data.
Three key parameters: screening sensitivity, transition probability densityfrom disease free to preclinical state, and sojourn time in the preclinical
state, were estimated using Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo
simulations.
The sensitivity for lung cancer screening using CT scan is high;
it does not depend on a patient’s age, and is slightly higher in females than
in males. The transition probability from the disease-free to the preclinicalstate has a peak around age 70 for both genders, which agrees with the fact
that the highest lung cancer incidence rate appears between age 65 and 74. The
posterior mean sojourn time is around 1.5 years for all groups, and that
explains why screening only have a short time interval to catch lung cancer. Accurate
estimation of the three key parameters is critical for other estimations such
as lead time and over-diagnosis, because these quantities are functions of the
three key parameters.
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